What is happening with Russia and Ukraine now?

DPR press conference with captured UA soldiers was held on the 20th of January. They named themselves, told the details of their capture to the reporters, and said that they were left to die by their commanders. Ther were told they are being sent to the airport as reinforcements for infamous "cyborgs", but couldn't even reach the terminals as they were given wrong information about the situation in the area. Then Alexander Zakharchenko, DPR leader, has repeated his message from the previous video.

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"We want peace. If you want peace as well, let's talk. But if you come to our land and try to kill us, we will destroy you."

He says that several hundred soldiers were killed in and around the airport in the past few days, which is confirmed by the POWs. He invites the commanders of the soldiers and the president of the Ukraine, if they are honorable men, to come take their dead and the banner they protected. They have died doing what they were ordered to do, and so they deserve respect and a proper burial.

At the end of the conference he listed several officer's names and cellphone numbers found on them. He asks the relatives of the deceased to contact him and receive the corpses.

Here are the videos of this conference from several TV channels:

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More videos with POWs, saying they were lied to by their commanders:

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One of the POWs is the soldier that was seen in a video about airport garrison rotation a month ago, so the footage is not fake:

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Meanwhile Donetsk is still being heavily bombed:

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Ukraine media has posted "proof" that DPR did not take the airport. The photograph they used that was reportedly taken today has a view on an intact air control tower, that they themselves reported collapsing two weeks ago.

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Ukraine president has visited Davos's World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2015 and has shown a piece of the Volnovakha bus, claiming it was hit by Russian missiles:

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A Dnipropetrovsk TV news report on the conscription efforts. Nobody opens doors and pretends they are not at home. The military officers keep ringing the doorbels and knocking on the doors with no answer. The civilians polled on the streets show disapproval of the 4th wave of mobilization, calling it a "suicide" and "illegal since the war was not declared":

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More POW footage from the airport, they name themselves, the squads they were assigned to and their tasks at the time of capture. As you would imagine there is no coverage in the western media:

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Russian TV Appeared To Show Russian Marines Inside A Contested Ukraine Airport.

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This is the wrong patch, however. Modern one doesn't have the motto on it, seen here, here, here and here.

Either way this is situational evidence at best, it may mean anything ranging from them being actual troops to these people once serving in the army or just showing support. A lot of rebels are 40+ years old men that served in the USSR military.

Not stating that there isn't a number of Russian troops and experts in DPR and LPR, just calling bullshit on this specific "definitive" proof.

 

Ukrainian parliament proposed that a conscript can pay a legal bribe of 2000 USD in order to avoid being sent to the ATO zone.

 

BBC: Ukraine crisis: Army retreats at Donetsk airport

 

Fixed your link to contain the name of the article.

Another bombing of Donetsk killed 13 people on the 22nd of January. No peace marches Je Suis Donbass are planned in Kiev (NSFW):

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Prisoners taken at the Airport were marched to the bombed out bus stop and asked if they are fucking sorry (Literally) for what their government does. They say that they didn't know and say they didn't kill anyone. The civilians are demanding to lynch them and try to assault the prisoners with guards pushing them back (NSFW):

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Ukrainian media reports (1, 2, 3) that the terrorists have bombed themselves, that FSB has staged the bombing and that Chechens have shot the bus stop up from a passing car.

 

Zakharchenko says that the colonel that was captured in the Donetsk Airport (Микац Олег Михайлович) will not be exchanged and will be taken to the bombing sites and then will give interviews and explain the mess to TV channels in the following weeks:

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Ukrainian media reports that the colonel is fake and never existed, despite being shown on several videos from the airport before:

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DPR appears to be on the offensive. Zakharchenko has released a statement to the Ukrainian army and government:

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"... As you know, one of the Donetsk districts was bombed yesterday. A bus stop was hit and thirteen people have been killed, all were our fellow countrymen, all were civilians. Dear... Well, not exactly dear, Poroshenko, Yatseniuk and Poltorak, the deaths of those people are on your consciousness. You have issued orders to your army to bomb our cities, to kill our children, women and elderly ... I would like to say to those who pressed the buttons, sitting in safety dozens of kilometers away: We will do everything we can to find you and destroy you ... In light of recent events, we will push your army away from our cities to stop the bombings, since all Minsk agreements were annulled by the Ukraine by this point. There will be no more ceasefires and we will not take prisoners from this point onward ... We have made this mistake once already and we will not repeat it again ..."

 

Mariupol has been shelled, leaving about 30 civilians dead and a further 90 wounded. As usual, each side is blaming the other, but this time it's quite obvious that it was the separatists. The European Union's Federica Mogherini urged Russia to withdraw its support for the rebels or these horrendous stories will continue. Of course, the Kiev government is backed by the West and their military have been just as (if not more) oppressive towards the people of Ukraine as the separatists, but of course we won't hear about that in the Western mass media.

Anyway, this is just one more example of how DNR and LNR (as organisations) do not have the interests of your average Ukrainian at heart. Kiev represents the interests of continued NATO and EU expansion into Eastern Europe, whilst the "people's republics" represent the Russian Federation's faltering influence over the region. If one of these sides withdrew their support, the conflict would not just end - it would starting rapidly going in favour of the other side. Eventually it would deescalate after many more casualties, but there's no credibility to the argument that we would have peace if Russia pulled its nose out of there; there'd be no armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine if only NATO/EU or only Russia was there, the war is happening because they are both there and are using proxies to secure economic control over the area.

English sources: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30967949 and http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/24/ukraine-crisis-dozens-die-rebels-shell-mariupol

 

First of all I would like to congratulate the western politicians on finally noticing that civilians die. It took them eight months. And although this is a tragedy, personally I think that they don't get to complain, not after turning a blind eye almost a year ago when UA army began an anti-terrorist operation. They were doing this to Donetsk more-or-less daily throughout the entire fall and nobody called them out on it.

Secondly I'd like to disagree here, at the very least both sides have a hand in this, and here is why. OSCE says that the attacks came from the rebel controlled area, but the damage caught on tape doesn't match the angle of the attacks (Towns they list are way too far to the east). So either I'm really shitty at reading maps, or what they say is wrong. I'll completely ignore the sensationalist articles and speculation and instead just use raw video footage and google maps:

First video is taken at Olympiyskaya street, 161/167:

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The building's facade looks to the north. The shape of the buildings around it would prevent the shells from landing in this position if they were fired from the Novoazovsk direction. The damage on the buildings looks like it came from the north/north-east, where the UA controlled Sartana is. The remains of the rocket sticking from the ground point north as well.

Another video taken at this location. The explosions are seen behind tall buildings on the right and the left sides of the video, which would be impossible if the rockets/shells came from the east (3:05):

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Next video, at 9:03:

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School #5 in Mariupol, inner yard. If you compare the roof over the entrance to the map and the direction of the fragments of the explosion, you can see that the shell came from the western direction.

As always, please double check me if you can.

 

So, Komodo, Mariupol is under Ukrainian control. You claim Ukrainians did this. What would the point be?
Dispatches: Rebels Likely Behind Deadly Rocket Attacks in Mariupol

 

Honestly, it's hard to tell who is doing what at this point, but the important thing to remember is that there is a very real war going on there and both sides are causing damage to the area. Komo, I appreciate the fact that you're investigating these matters yourself and that's a good attitude to have towards this, but sometimes I think you are over-complicating things a bit. It is true that the Kiev-based government is quite fucked up and generally terrible at handling this so-called "anti-terrorist" operation, with plenty of civilians being targeted purposefully or not, however this does not mean that every action harmful towards the local populace is carried out by Poroshenko's goons. Also, Dark, it is important to remember that the physical conflict is between Ukrainians (even though the whole battle is between NATO and Russia). Even though DNR/LNR identify more with Russia and have received some support from the Russian state, this does not change the fact that they have lived as citizens of Ukraine for decades. The mass media of both sides are exaggerating the differences between the Ukrainian-speaking and the primarily Russian-speaking populations of the country, but the divergence really is not as great as it seems and these people lived peacefully as one nation not much longer than a year ago.

 

To make noise in the media, to make the conflict relevant, to try and force NATO to interfere and to receive more money.

If you have been following recent news, the media has pretty much stopped reporting the civil war in Ukraine, which is why most of the posts in this thread were raw videos instead of actual articles lately. Out of billions of promised loans only a few millions have been paid in decreasing increments with Europe saying they don't have any more money to spare, and the country is essentially bankrupt. NATO has not sent any troops and the sanctions are not as effective as expected. Newest mobilization effort discovered that up to 75% of potential conscripts somehow magically vanished in certain regions and the rebels said they are fed up with the ceasefires that never work and went on the offensive.

Both Yatseniuk and Poroshenko went around the world (See earlier posts in this thread) crying bloody murder, placing flowers at the Charlie Hebdo where 12 cartoonists died, while ignoring 5000 dead at home, and asked for money at every opportunity. They said Russia attacked them with nukes, they said Russia shot down the MH17 (With the investigation being stalled forever. If it really proves that rebels/Russia are the murderers, why wait?), they lugged the Volnovakha bus piece around (While claiming that it was hit with a 122mm artillery, which even OSCE didn't know about), they said that in 1941 USSR invaded Ukraine (Which has been a part of USSR since 1919) and Germany during WW2, they have demanded the world to officially call DPR and LPR terrorist organizations, which the world has refused to do so far.

There is now this really shady attack of Mariupol which somehow instantly causes an outcry in the media despite the same shit happening for the better half of the past year in Donetsk with zero coverage. The rebels have not been close enough to the city at the time of the attack and the effective range on MRLs is limited. The direction of the attack is questionable, but OSCE says it's the rebels within the same day. Ukraine assigns the blame instantly, as has always happened in the past, without any due investigation. Moreover, they have sent a demand to the International Court in Hague and they again demand to call Russia, DPR and LPR terrorists.

There have been hundreds of civilian deaths in Donetsk so far (Terrorists were apparently bombing themselves, remember?) and nobody gave a shit, UA conscripts die in the thousands and nobody bats an eye, what makes this one so special? It doesn't add up.

 

I have to stay that this is bordering on conspiracy theories now, but the things you say are quite valid and they make sense. Kiev has been pretty fucking incompetent in how it has been handling the situation, both within and out of the country. Then again, three quarters of the vodka bottle are gone now so perhaps you should take everything I say with a grain (or crapload) of salt.

 

I really want this to be just a conspiracy theory, with aliens and stuff, but it's blatantly obvious that Europe starts to really question if this shit is worth paying for and Kiev desperately needs to stage its own 9/11 to shake things up.

If this war stops and people see what kind of shithole their country became, they will tear the current government apart themselves.

 

So if Donetsk people are said to be bombing themselves, it sounds unbelievable to you, but if UA is doing it it makes totally sense?

You are biased here.

 

Anti-USA rally in Erfurt, Germany. Roughly a 1000 people have rallied against cutting ties with Russia and escalating a WW3.

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I suppose I am biased, but I always try to look at the situation from a non-subjective viewpoint, to use sources from all sides and I ask everyone to double check me all the time. If you don't trust my calculations, do the math yourself separately and compare results to see if I'm counting it wrong. If you don't think that my proof is valid, please try to find verifiable sources for that and so on. Don't hesitate to call me out on something, but don't just say "it's biased therefore invalid".

Donetsk has nothing to gain from bombing their own people, they would be destroying their own infrastructure and their own human resources for nothing. The West doesn't care and Russia already supports them to begin with. Investments into Ukraine have dwindled however and UA leadership asks for more, using aforementioned "terrorist attacks" as a bargaining chip. The reactions of the Western politicians prove this theory. The Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon condems an attack on Mariupol the moment it happens and calls it "a violation of international humanitarian law", but says nothing about attacks on Donetsk which were supposedly carried out by the same "terrorists".

In addition UA president Poroshenko said this last October on a conference in Odessa:

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Ukraine has a reason to bomb Donetsk, Ukraine has the means to bomb Donetsk and Ukraine has shown intent to bomb Donetsk.

Let's see if the bombings will stop when DPR pushes Ukraine artillery out of the range to hit the city.

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Let's take a look at one of the videos from Mariupol again:

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The sound of Grads being launched comes at 3:07, Grads explosions become visible at 3:18.

There were roughly 11 seconds between launch and landing. BM-21 Grad muzzle velocity is 690 m/s. This means they were launched from 690 m/s * 11 s = 7590 meters away, or 7.6 km, rounded up. Since they don't travel in a straight line, but in a parabolic trajectory, this estimated distance between a launch and landing sites is even smaller, since the rockets would have to cover a longer path with the speed and time being constant. The attacks came from north, north-east. The flight distance and the direction of the attacks match my calculations earlier and OSCE report and point to Sartana which was and still is under government control. Screencaps from Google Maps are under spoiler tags. Distances are measured by a built-in Google Maps ruler:

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Closest contested area, according to the official National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine maps dated 25th of January, 2015 is Shirokino, which is 8.5 km away to the south east.

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Closest contested area to the north-east according to the official UA maps is Krasnoarmeiskoye, which is 20 km from the area of attack. OSCE says the attack came from Zaichenko, but it is controlled by the government while the flight time and the building damage don't match.

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Official map uploaded to imgur just in case (HD version here):

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